Scenarios · Q2 2026 · Aug 2025–Jul 2026
Two scenarios
Each takes published series and does arithmetic on them, one round. No model sits behind any number here.
The first-round rule: a past share or a chosen cut is applied to today’s published positions. Prices do not move, nobody reacts, nothing is rolled over or replaced. The result is the size of the first hit, not a forecast of what follows.
S1 · Replay a past withdrawal
Q2 2026The share of bank and bond funding that left an economy in a past stress quarter, applied to its funding stock today, against its net reserves and a year of imports.
- Locational banking statistics (LBS) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q2 2026, quarterly · read 30 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- Debt securities statistics (DSS) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q2 2026, quarterly · read 27 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity (IRFCL) · IMF, open, with attribution · Q2 2026, quarterly · read 29 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- UN Comtrade, goods trade by reporter and partner · UN Statistics Division, derived records only (shares × world total) · 12-month window, Aug 2025–Jul 2026 · read 2 Nov 2026 · via trade-flow method
Stock and quarter flows: BIS locational banking statistics and BIS international debt securities; net reserves: IMF IRFCL, all as money-flow method 1.4 publishes them. Imports: UN Comtrade 12-month windows as trade-flow publishes them. Calculations: datasteg.
S3 · The dollar scenario
Once relation E2 is acceptedQ2 2026A chosen dollar move carried through the tercile slopes of the dollar channel to each economy’s exports two quarters later. The dollar channel page shows the relation and its intervals; the scenario opens when relation E2 is accepted on the method page (PLAN.html). Until then the page is the channel itself.
- FRED, Federal Reserve H.4.1 and H.10 series · Federal Reserve Board, via FRED (St. Louis Fed), public domain, citation requested ·
DTWEXBGS· quarterly averages · read 31 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method - UN Comtrade, goods trade by reporter and partner · UN Statistics Division, derived records only (shares × world total) · 12-month windows at quarter ends · read 2 Nov 2026 · via trade-flow method
- Locational banking statistics (LBS) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q2 2026, quarterly · read 30 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- Credit to the non-financial sector (GDP for every ratio) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q2 2026, quarterly · via money-flow method
Federal Reserve H.10 broad dollar index via FRED (quarterly averages); UN Comtrade 12-month windows; A1 as money-flow method 1.4.
Two scenarios moved to the parents on 2 November 2026: a supplier dropping out of a chain stage is trade-flow’s “Cut a supplier” case tool; a lender pulling back is money-flow’s “Cut a lender” panel on the bank market. The old addresses redirect there. Cut a supplier on trade-flow → · Cut a lender on money-flow →