Shocks · Q2 2026 · Aug 2025–Jul 2026
How shocks travel through trade and funding
Replays of supply shocks along the trade links, two first-round scenarios and the dollar channel. Everything here is observed data or simple arithmetic on it, never a model. The episode catalogue and the trade events live on the two parents and are linked below.
COVID-19, 2020
Mar 2020WHO declares COVID-19 a pandemic
A supply shock played month by month: the origin’s exports, its direct buyers, then their exports to third markets, with each economy recoloured by its funding flow score as the quarters pass.
Strait of Hormuz, 2026
Mar 2026War on Iran shuts the Strait of Hormuz
A supply shock played month by month: the origin’s exports, its direct buyers, then their exports to third markets, with each economy recoloured by its funding flow score as the quarters pass.
Ongoing: data incomplete
Lehman and the trade collapse, 2008
Sep 2008Lehman Brothers fails and world trade collapses
A supply shock played month by month: the origin’s exports, its direct buyers, then their exports to third markets, with each economy recoloured by its funding flow score as the quarters pass.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, 2022
Feb 2022Russia invades Ukraine; oil and potash sanctions follow
A supply shock played month by month: the origin’s exports, its direct buyers, then their exports to third markets, with each economy recoloured by its funding flow score as the quarters pass.
Ongoing: data incomplete
Crisis episodes and trade events
The nine named episodes of external funding stress are money-flow’s validation set and are catalogued on its method page; the trade events, with their timelines and sources, are trade-flow’s. Every yellow band on this site is one of them.
Scenarios
First-round arithmetic: a past funding withdrawal on today’s stock (S1), and the dollar scenario (S3) once relation E2 is accepted. A supplier dropping out is trade-flow’s case tool, a lender pulling back money-flow’s bank panel.
Dollar channel
When the dollar rises, do exports fall? Each economy’s 12-month export growth two quarters later against the broad dollar index’s change on a year earlier, pooled by reliance on FX credit.