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Shock replay · 24 Feb 2022 · Feb 2021–Aug 2023

Russia invades Ukraine; oil and potash sanctions follow

Ongoing: data incomplete

Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022, and the war goes on in October 2026. EU sanctions on Belarus reached all potash in March–April 2022, and the EU barred seaborne Russian crude from 5 December 2022 and Russian oil products from 5 February 2023, the days the G7 price caps took effect.

Observed data, not causal attribution. The are a reading of who traded with whom before the shock; a later fall along an edge is shown, not explained. The invasion came on 24 February 2022; the base window is the 12 months to November 2021. Russia stopped filing with UN Comtrade after December 2021, so every Russian flow from 2022 on is its partners' report (trade-flow marks them). Wave 1 is what Russia sold before the war (oil, gas, wheat, fertilisers); wave 3 follows the buyers' refined-oil exports, the event's third product, to third markets.

This event in trade-flow → The event’s timeline, products and sources are there.

Feb 2021t−12

RussiaChinaItalyGermanyNetherlandsPolandSlovakiaCzechiaBrazilHungaryFinlandRomaniaLithuaniaUnited StatesSingaporeFranceBelgiumNigeriaAustriaSwedenUKMalaysiaSwitzerland
Edge colour: 3 months against the same 3 months a year earlier · width: below −20%−20 to −5%−5 to 5%5 to 20%above 20%Node colour: the funding of the quarter (creditors adding or withdrawing); after the newest published quarter, that quarter carries onbelow −20−20 to −5−5 to 55 to 20above 20no funding scoreRings: crosses 60 or crosses 100% in that quarterDashed: an economy under 90% of its usual trade, or the month repeats the one before (no window of that length ends then)
Sources

Trade: trade-flow build of 2 Nov 2026, 12- and 3-month windows to Aug 2023; values are shares of world trade times the world total; partner reports where the importer has not filed. Funding: money-flow release 20261102.2, method 1.5, quarters to Q3 2023. Waves: the 12 largest buyers of the origins’ goods in the 12 months to Nov 2021 where the origins held at least 10% of the buyer’s imports; their 10 largest third markets, each drawn to its 3 largest (config/shocks.yaml).

Who was hit, and did funding cushion it?

Feb 2022–Feb 2023 · Q3 2023

Every board economy: its worst 3-month export change in the 12 months from the event against a year earlier, its before the event and at its lowest in the four quarters from the event’s, and in 2021. Ranked by the export change. Observed, not causal: many things moved at once.

EconomyHow it earnedWorst exportsMonthF lowestChange in F
Russia1 · OriginEarns by trading−27.9%Feb 2023+7.0−28.4−35.4
KoreaEarns by trading−17.1%Feb 2023+14.5−11.2−25.7
China2 · Direct importersEarns by trading−10.8%Feb 2023+0.2−15.0−15.1
Finland2 · Direct importersEarns from foreign assets−8.5%Feb 2023−61.6−38.0+23.6
Malaysia3 · Third marketsEarns by trading−6.8%Feb 2023+0.6−11.8−12.3
ThailandPays out both ways−6.7%Feb 2023+6.3−15.1−21.4
South AfricaEarns by trading−6.5%Jun 2022−19.6−1.8+17.8
JapanEarns from foreign assets−5.6%Feb 2023−13.5−7.8+5.7
New ZealandPays out both ways−4.0%Feb 2023+16.5−1.8−18.3
UK3 · Third marketsPays out both ways−2.9%Dec 2022+4.0−5.5−9.6
IsraelEarns by trading−2.8%Feb 2023+50.7−26.1−76.8
IndiaPays out both ways−2.6%Feb 2023+6.7−16.7−23.4
DenmarkEarns both ways−2.5%Jul 2022−22.4−23.5−1.1
ArgentinaEarns by trading−2.1%Nov 2022+2.4−23.7−26.1
Germany2 · Direct importersEarns both ways−1.9%Nov 2022−3.3−25.8−22.5
Belgium3 · Third marketsEarns both ways−1.8%Feb 2023−9.0−13.4−4.3
Austria3 · Third marketsEarns from foreign assets−1.0%Feb 2023−7.0−6.1+0.9
Sweden3 · Third marketsEarns both ways0.0%Nov 2022−11.5−14.5−3.1
ChilePays out both ways+0.3%Dec 2022+10.0−6.4−16.4
Italy2 · Direct importersEarns both ways+0.8%Nov 2022−1.1−1.3−0.2
NorwayEarns both ways+1.4%Dec 2022+30.9−0.8−31.8
SpainPays out both ways+1.6%Nov 2022+11.8+2.4−9.5
France3 · Third marketsEarns from foreign assets+1.6%Nov 2022−1.9−5.5−3.7
TürkiyePays out both ways+1.7%Feb 2023−10.3−11.0−0.6
PortugalPays out both ways+2.9%Dec 2022+7.5+5.0−2.5
Hungary2 · Direct importersPays out both ways+3.7%Jul 2022+31.0−38.1−69.1
Poland2 · Direct importersEarns by trading+3.8%Dec 2022+6.1−14.2−20.3
Czechia2 · Direct importersEarns by trading+4.2%Dec 2022−13.4−51.3−37.9
ColombiaPays out both ways+4.6%Feb 2023+10.9−7.8−18.7
Saudi ArabiaEarns both ways+6.8%Feb 2023−2.4−5.1−2.7
IndonesiaEarns by trading+7.5%Feb 2023−3.7−7.1−3.4
MexicoPays out both ways+8.4%Dec 2022+0.2−10.5−10.7
AustraliaEarns by trading+8.7%Dec 2022+23.9−0.3−24.2
CanadaPays out both ways+9.1%Feb 2023+27.6+6.3−21.3
GreecePays out both ways+12.0%Nov 2022+2.6−3.5−6.1
Brazil2 · Direct importersPays out both ways+12.4%Feb 2023+21.2−11.1−32.3

An export change needs both windows filed at 90% or more; an empty cell means it was not.

Medians by how economies earn

QuadrantEconomiesWorst exportsChange in F
Earns by trading11−2.8%−24.2
Earns both ways70.0%−3.1
Earns from foreign assets4−3.3%+3.3
Pays out both ways14+2.3%−17.4

A median of a handful of economies says little; read it with the table above.

Did the signals see it?

The stress count one quarter before the shock (Q4 2021), at the default thresholds, against the 3-month export fall each board economy then suffered.

Spearman −0.48 (one-sided permutation p = 0.999, 36 economies)

EconomyExport change
Russia0−27.9%
Korea0−17.1%
China0−10.8%
Finland0−8.5%
Malaysia0−6.8%
Thailand0−6.7%
South Africa0−6.5%
Japan0−5.6%
New Zealand2−4.0%
UK1−2.9%

Past shocks on the stress page →

Sources

Trade: trade-flow build of 2 Nov 2026, 12- and 3-month windows to Aug 2023; values are shares of world trade times the world total; partner reports where the importer has not filed. Funding: money-flow release 20261102.2, method 1.5, quarters to Q3 2023.