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Shock replay · 15 Sep 2008 · Sep 2007–Mar 2010

Lehman Brothers fails and world trade collapses

Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy on 15 September 2008. The volume of world trade fell 12.2% in 2009, the largest decline since the Second World War, the WTO reported.

Observed data, not causal attribution. The are a reading of who traded with whom before the shock; a later fall along an edge is shown, not explained. Lehman Brothers failed on 15 September 2008, so September is the event month; the base window is the 12 months to June 2008. trade-flow's product windows begin in 2014, so every wave here is all goods: the United States' purchases from its suppliers (wave 2) and their sales to third markets (wave 3).

This event in trade-flow → The event’s timeline, products and sources are there.

Sep 2007t−12

reporters hold 20% of world exports

United StatesBrazilIrelandChileDominican Rep.SLVBoliviaGermanyChinaUKBelgiumNetherlandsArgentinaFranceJapanItalySpain
Edge colour: 3 months against the same 3 months a year earlier · width: below −20%−20 to −5%−5 to 5%5 to 20%above 20%Node colour: the funding of the quarter (creditors adding or withdrawing); after the newest published quarter, that quarter carries onbelow −20−20 to −5−5 to 55 to 20above 20no funding scoreRings: crosses 60 or crosses 100% in that quarterDashed: an economy under 90% of its usual trade, or the month repeats the one before (no window of that length ends then)
Sources

Trade: trade-flow build of 2 Nov 2026, 12- and 3-month windows to Mar 2010; values are shares of world trade times the world total; partner reports where the importer has not filed. Funding: money-flow release 20261102.2, method 1.5, quarters to Q1 2010. Waves: the 12 largest buyers of the origins’ goods in the 12 months to Jun 2008 where the origins held at least 10% of the buyer’s imports; their 10 largest third markets, each drawn to its 3 largest (config/shocks.yaml).

Who was hit, and did funding cushion it?

Sep 2008–Sep 2009 · Q1 2010

Every board economy: its worst 3-month export change in the 12 months from the event against a year earlier, its before the event and at its lowest in the four quarters from the event’s, and in 2007. Ranked by the export change. Observed, not causal: many things moved at once.

EconomyHow it earnedWorst exportsMonthF lowestChange in F
Saudi ArabiaEarns both ways−56.5%Aug 2009–––
RussiaEarns by trading−50.4%Jun 2009+28.5−30.5−58.9
NorwayEarns by trading−46.8%Jun 2009+28.7−24.6−53.2
FinlandEarns by trading−44.3%Jun 2009+43.5−30.8−74.3
ColombiaPays out both ways−42.4%Jul 2009–––
SwedenEarns both ways−41.8%May 2009+5.6−21.3−26.9
MexicoPays out both ways−40.7%Jun 2009+19.9−16.1−36.0
CanadaEarns by trading−39.3%Jul 2009+13.5−4.8−18.3
Chile2 · Direct importersEarns by trading−38.6%Mar 2009+13.7−8.4−22.1
UK3 · Third marketsPays out both ways−37.0%May 2009−16.1−7.2+8.8
South AfricaPays out both ways−36.0%Jun 2009−15.1−20.6−5.6
Belgium3 · Third marketsEarns both ways−35.1%May 2009+38.5−45.4−83.9
Germany3 · Third marketsEarns both ways−34.5%Jun 2009−0.5−9.6−9.1
Italy3 · Third marketsPays out both ways−34.5%May 2009+19.9−10.0−29.9
IsraelPays out both ways−34.2%Jul 2009+30.7−11.1−41.8
IndiaPays out both ways−34.1%Jul 2009–––
TürkiyePays out both ways−34.1%Jun 2009+7.4−20.5−27.9
Japan3 · Third marketsEarns both ways−33.9%May 2009−36.2−16.4+19.9
PolandPays out both ways−33.8%Jun 2009+34.6−23.4−58.0
AustraliaPays out both ways−33.5%Aug 2009+17.7−23.4−41.2
HungaryPays out both ways−33.5%May 2009+56.2−6.8−63.0
PortugalPays out both ways−33.3%May 2009+10.1−12.7−22.8
MalaysiaEarns by trading−33.2%Jun 2009+8.9−57.2−66.1
AustriaEarns by trading−33.1%Jun 2009+8.0−11.9−19.8
GreecePays out both ways−31.9%May 2009+17.9−18.0−35.9
Spain3 · Third marketsPays out both ways−31.7%May 2009+23.2+0.1−23.1
CzechiaEarns by trading−31.4%Jun 2009+46.2−20.7−66.9
IndonesiaEarns by trading−31.4%May 2009+23.0−33.5−56.5
France3 · Third marketsEarns from foreign assets−31.2%Mar 2009+19.7−16.4−36.1
New ZealandPays out both ways−30.5%May 2009−19.8−46.3−26.5
Brazil2 · Direct importersEarns by trading−29.9%Jul 2009+30.4−22.7−53.0
Argentina3 · Third marketsEarns by trading−29.8%Sep 2009−4.5−41.1−36.7
China3 · Third marketsEarns by trading−28.8%Jul 2009–––
DenmarkEarns by trading−28.3%Jun 2009+33.6−24.0−57.5
ThailandEarns by trading−26.4%Jun 2009−16.6−17.7−1.1
KoreaEarns by trading−24.3%May 2009−4.8−80.3−75.5

An export change needs both windows filed at 90% or more; an empty cell means it was not.

Medians by how economies earn

QuadrantEconomiesWorst exportsChange in F
Earns by trading15−31.4%−54.9
Earns both ways5−35.1%−18.0
Earns from foreign assets1−31.2%−36.1
Pays out both ways15−34.1%−29.9

A median of a handful of economies says little; read it with the table above.

Did the signals see it?

The stress count one quarter before the shock (Q2 2008), at the default thresholds, against the 3-month export fall each board economy then suffered.

Spearman +0.22 (one-sided permutation p = 0.116, 33 economies)

EconomyExport change
Russia3−50.4%
Norway3−46.8%
Finland1−44.3%
Colombia2−42.4%
Sweden1−41.8%
Mexico2−40.7%
Canada2−39.3%
Chile0−38.6%
UK1−37.0%
South Africa3−36.0%

Past shocks on the stress page →

Sources

Trade: trade-flow build of 2 Nov 2026, 12- and 3-month windows to Mar 2010; values are shares of world trade times the world total; partner reports where the importer has not filed. Funding: money-flow release 20261102.2, method 1.5, quarters to Q1 2010.