Skip to content

Shock replay · 28 Feb 2026 · Mar 2025–Sep 2027

War on Iran shuts the Strait of Hormuz

Ongoing: data incomplete

The US and Israel struck Iran on 28 February 2026 and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz all but stopped. A ceasefire (8 April), a US blockade of Iran's ports (13 April) and a memorandum (17 June) did not hold: fighting resumed on 8 July and spread to Bab al-Mandab in September.

Observed data, not causal attribution. The are a reading of who traded with whom before the shock; a later fall along an edge is shown, not explained. The strikes came on 28 February 2026, so March is the first full month. The Gulf exporters do not file monthly with UN Comtrade: their flows are the importers' reports. China has filed no 2026 months, so its purchases are missing. Ongoing: the data stop at trade-flow's last shown month.

This event in trade-flow → The event’s timeline, products and sources are there.

Mar 2025t−12

reporters hold 84% of world exports

Saudi ArabiaUAEQatarIraqKuwaitIranOmanBahrainTaiwanIndiaJapanKoreaSingaporeThailandPakistanMalaysiaPolandGreeceLithuaniaBrazilAustraliaChinaIndonesiaUnited StatesVietnamPhilippinesBangladeshNew ZealandHong Kong SARMyanmar
Edge colour: 3 months against the same 3 months a year earlier · width: below −20%−20 to −5%−5 to 5%5 to 20%above 20%Node colour: the funding of the quarter (creditors adding or withdrawing); after the newest published quarter, that quarter carries onbelow −20−20 to −5−5 to 55 to 20above 20no funding scoreRings: crosses 60 or crosses 100% in that quarterDashed: an economy under 90% of its usual trade, or the month repeats the one before (no window of that length ends then)
Sources

Trade: trade-flow build of 2 Nov 2026, 12- and 3-month windows to Jul 2026; values are shares of world trade times the world total; partner reports where the importer has not filed. Funding: money-flow release 20261102.2, method 1.5, quarters to Q2 2026. Waves: the 12 largest buyers of the origins’ goods in the 12 months to Dec 2025 where the origins held at least 10% of the buyer’s imports; their 10 largest third markets, each drawn to its 3 largest (config/shocks.yaml).

Who was hit, and did funding cushion it?

Mar 2026–Jul 2026 · Q2 2026

Every board economy: its worst 3-month export change in the 12 months from the event against a year earlier, its before the event and at its lowest in the four quarters from the event’s, and in 2025. Ranked by the export change. Observed, not causal: many things moved at once.

EconomyHow it earnedWorst exportsMonthF lowestChange in F
IsraelEarns by trading−9.9%May 2026+6.2+14.5+8.3
Saudi Arabia1 · OriginEarns by trading−3.8%Mar 2026+11.2+6.8−4.3
Indonesia3 · Third marketsEarns by trading−1.8%Jul 2026+16.6+1.8−14.8
UKPays out both ways+0.1%Mar 2026+0.6+12.6+11.9
India2 · Direct importersPays out both ways+0.2%Mar 2026+2.1+9.4+7.2
DenmarkEarns both ways+0.6%Jul 2026+0.2+9.9+9.7
NorwayEarns both ways+0.7%Mar 2026+74.8−32.6−107.5
AustriaEarns by trading+1.3%Jun 2026−5.7−8.0−2.3
CanadaPays out both ways+2.1%Mar 2026+9.9+13.8+3.9
Japan2 · Direct importersEarns from foreign assets+3.6%May 2026+8.2−7.7−15.9
GermanyEarns both ways+4.5%Jul 2026−1.8+6.7+8.5
ColombiaPays out both ways+4.7%Mar 2026+18.7+7.0−11.7
New Zealand3 · Third marketsPays out both ways+6.1%Mar 2026+15.1−4.0−19.1
Brazil2 · Direct importersPays out both ways+6.3%Mar 2026+8.5+4.6−3.9
PortugalEarns by trading+6.4%Mar 2026+5.8+6.8+1.0
SwedenEarns both ways+6.7%Mar 2026−20.6+11.0+31.6
ItalyEarns by trading+7.4%Jul 2026−0.2−6.8−6.6
CzechiaEarns by trading+7.5%Jul 2026+18.7+16.1−2.7
SpainEarns by trading+7.9%Jun 2026+11.2+5.9−5.3
MexicoPays out both ways+7.9%Mar 2026−8.6+7.7+16.3
FinlandEarns by trading+8.1%Jul 2026−8.2+8.5+16.6
BelgiumEarns from foreign assets+8.5%May 2026−9.4−11.8−2.4
Greece2 · Direct importersPays out both ways+9.0%Mar 2026+8.2−2.7−10.9
HungaryEarns by trading+10.4%Jul 2026−5.1+1.8+6.9
Poland2 · Direct importersEarns by trading+10.6%Jun 2026+4.2+17.2+12.9
ArgentinaPays out both ways+13.8%Mar 2026+14.2−8.8−22.9
Australia3 · Third marketsPays out both ways+13.8%Mar 2026+16.7+3.4−13.2
South AfricaEarns by trading+15.8%Mar 2026+14.0−4.9−18.9
ChileEarns by trading+18.6%May 2026+9.2+4.1−5.0
Thailand2 · Direct importersEarns by trading+26.5%Mar 2026+15.1−4.8−19.9
Korea2 · Direct importersEarns both ways+31.5%Mar 2026+9.9+9.8−0.1
Malaysia2 · Direct importersEarns by trading+38.6%Mar 2026+4.5+5.5+1.0
China3 · Third marketsEarns by trading––+0.7−4.9−5.6
FranceEarns from foreign assets––+7.5+13.1+5.6
RussiaEarns by trading––−5.2−16.1−10.9
TürkiyePays out both ways––+10.7+7.0−3.7

An export change needs both windows filed at 90% or more; an empty cell means it was not.

Medians by how economies earn

QuadrantEconomiesWorst exportsChange in F
Earns by trading17+7.9%−4.3
Earns both ways5+4.5%+8.5
Earns from foreign assets3+6.0%−2.4
Pays out both ways11+6.2%−3.9

A median of a handful of economies says little; read it with the table above.

Did the signals see it?

The stress count one quarter before the shock (Q4 2025), at the default thresholds, against the 3-month export fall each board economy then suffered.

Spearman +0.35 (one-sided permutation p = 0.027, 32 economies)

EconomyExport change
Israel1−9.9%
Saudi Arabia1−3.8%
Indonesia1−1.8%
UK1+0.1%
India0+0.2%
Denmark1+0.6%
Norway2+0.7%
Austria0+1.3%
Canada2+2.1%
Japan0+3.6%

Past shocks on the stress page →

Sources

Trade: trade-flow build of 2 Nov 2026, 12- and 3-month windows to Jul 2026; values are shares of world trade times the world total; partner reports where the importer has not filed. Funding: money-flow release 20261102.2, method 1.5, quarters to Q2 2026.