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Shock replay · 11 Mar 2020 · Mar 2019–Sep 2021

WHO declares COVID-19 a pandemic

WHO characterized COVID-19 as a pandemic on 11 March 2020. World merchandise trade fell 14.3% from the first to the second quarter, the largest drop on record, and its volume ended 2020 down 5.3%, the WTO estimated.

Observed data, not causal attribution. The are a reading of who traded with whom before the shock; a later fall along an edge is shown, not explained. China's factories shut in late January and February 2020, before WHO called the pandemic on 11 March; the base window is the 12 months to December 2019.

This event in trade-flow → The event’s timeline, products and sources are there.

Mar 2019t−12

ChinaHong Kong SARUnited StatesJapanGermanyKoreaTaiwanUAESingaporeMexicoUKCzechiaCanadaFranceNetherlandsIndiaItalySwitzerlandVietnamThailandMalaysiaAustriaBelgium
Edge colour: 3 months against the same 3 months a year earlier · width: below −20%−20 to −5%−5 to 5%5 to 20%above 20%Node colour: the funding of the quarter (creditors adding or withdrawing); after the newest published quarter, that quarter carries onbelow −20−20 to −5−5 to 55 to 20above 20no funding scoreRings: crosses 60 or crosses 100% in that quarterDashed: an economy under 90% of its usual trade, or the month repeats the one before (no window of that length ends then)
Sources

Trade: trade-flow build of 2 Nov 2026, 12- and 3-month windows to Sep 2021; values are shares of world trade times the world total; partner reports where the importer has not filed. Funding: money-flow release 20261102.2, method 1.5, quarters to Q3 2021. Waves: the 12 largest buyers of the origins’ goods in the 12 months to Dec 2019 where the origins held at least 10% of the buyer’s imports; their 10 largest third markets, each drawn to its 3 largest (config/shocks.yaml).

Who was hit, and did funding cushion it?

Mar 2020–Mar 2021 · Q3 2021

Every board economy: its worst 3-month export change in the 12 months from the event against a year earlier, its before the event and at its lowest in the four quarters from the event’s, and in 2019. Ranked by the export change. Observed, not causal: many things moved at once.

EconomyHow it earnedWorst exportsMonthF lowestChange in F
Saudi ArabiaEarns by trading−47.9%Jun 2020+24.6−15.9−40.5
India3 · Third marketsPays out both ways−37.3%Jun 2020+3.0−23.2−26.2
Mexico2 · Direct importersPays out both ways−37.2%Jun 2020+4.4−1.6−6.0
NorwayEarns both ways−35.7%Jun 2020+14.8−7.3−22.1
ColombiaPays out both ways−34.8%Jun 2020+0.9−2.3−3.2
Canada2 · Direct importersPays out both ways−34.3%Jun 2020+10.9−9.5−20.4
France3 · Third marketsEarns from foreign assets−33.7%Jun 2020−8.3−7.0+1.4
RussiaEarns by trading−33.4%Jun 2020+3.7−14.3−18.1
South AfricaPays out both ways−31.5%Jun 2020−3.8−10.0−6.3
PortugalPays out both ways−28.0%Jun 2020−0.1−15.5−15.4
TürkiyeEarns by trading−28.0%May 2020−10.9−16.3−5.4
Czechia2 · Direct importersEarns by trading−27.6%May 2020+8.3−57.8−66.0
Italy3 · Third marketsEarns by trading−27.0%Jun 2020−3.6−9.0−5.4
SpainEarns by trading−25.1%May 2020+4.2−5.7−9.9
UK2 · Direct importersPays out both ways−25.0%Jun 2020−7.5−4.6+2.9
Belgium3 · Third marketsPays out both ways−24.4%May 2020−17.0−25.8−8.7
Germany2 · Direct importersEarns both ways−23.6%Jun 2020−21.9−16.7+5.1
Austria3 · Third marketsEarns by trading−23.1%Jun 2020+1.2−3.0−4.2
HungaryEarns by trading−22.8%May 2020+6.9−24.2−31.1
FinlandPays out both ways−22.2%May 2020−16.3−21.6−5.3
IsraelEarns by trading−21.7%May 2020+13.4+15.5+2.1
GreecePays out both ways−21.2%May 2020−1.4−16.2−14.8
SwedenEarns both ways−20.7%Jun 2020−9.8−0.4+9.4
Japan2 · Direct importersEarns from foreign assets−20.5%Jul 2020−7.1−20.5−13.5
PolandEarns by trading−19.2%May 2020−5.0−17.4−12.4
AustraliaEarns by trading−18.2%Sep 2020+3.5−16.1−19.5
ArgentinaEarns by trading−17.5%Jun 2020−3.6−18.8−15.2
Malaysia3 · Third marketsEarns by trading−16.7%May 2020−14.8−1.4+13.4
Thailand3 · Third marketsEarns by trading−14.1%Jul 2020+31.5−4.3−35.8
China1 · OriginPays out both ways−13.2%Mar 2020+4.9−6.8−11.7
IndonesiaPays out both ways−13.1%Jul 2020+5.5−2.8−8.3
Korea2 · Direct importersEarns by trading−12.7%Jun 2020+4.5−14.7−19.1
BrazilPays out both ways−11.9%May 2020−3.0−22.6−19.5
DenmarkEarns both ways−11.8%Jun 2020−17.7−13.9+3.8
New ZealandPays out both ways−11.4%Jun 2020+19.5−7.5−27.0
ChilePays out both ways−9.2%May 2020+3.8−13.7−17.5

An export change needs both windows filed at 90% or more; an empty cell means it was not.

Medians by how economies earn

QuadrantEconomiesWorst exportsChange in F
Earns by trading15−22.8%−15.2
Earns both ways4−22.1%+4.4
Earns from foreign assets2−27.1%−6.0
Pays out both ways15−24.4%−11.7

A median of a handful of economies says little; read it with the table above.

Did the signals see it?

The stress count one quarter before the shock (Q4 2019), at the default thresholds, against the 3-month export fall each board economy then suffered.

Spearman +0.02 (one-sided permutation p = 0.446, 35 economies)

EconomyExport change
Saudi Arabia1−47.9%
India0−37.3%
Mexico1−37.2%
Norway1−35.7%
Colombia2−34.8%
Canada2−34.3%
France1−33.7%
Russia1−33.4%
South Africa1−31.5%
Portugal1−28.0%

Past shocks on the stress page →

Sources

Trade: trade-flow build of 2 Nov 2026, 12- and 3-month windows to Sep 2021; values are shares of world trade times the world total; partner reports where the importer has not filed. Funding: money-flow release 20261102.2, method 1.5, quarters to Q3 2021.