Dollar channel · Q1 2007–Q3 2026
The dollar and exports, two quarters apart
Bruno and Shin (BIS Working Paper 819, “Dollar and exports”) find that after the dollar appreciates, exporters that rely more on dollar bank credit see that credit tighten and their exports fall, because the working capital behind a shipment is borrowed in dollars. This page draws that relation on the two datasets here, with A1 as the measure of dollar credit: nothing on it is a forecast.
Broad dollar index, change on a year earlier
Q1 2007–Q3 2026Quarterly averages of the Federal Reserve’s broad dollar index against the same quarter a year earlier, in %. The yellow bands are the stress quarters of the episode library. Every result below pairs this series with export growth 2 quarters later.
- FRED, Federal Reserve H.4.1 and H.10 series · Federal Reserve Board, via FRED (St. Louis Fed), public domain, citation requested ·
DTWEXBGS· quarterly averages · read 3 Nov 2026 · via money-flow method - UN Comtrade, goods trade by reporter and partner · UN Statistics Division, derived records only (shares × world total) · 12-month windows at quarter ends · read 2 Nov 2026 · via trade-flow method
- Locational banking statistics (LBS) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q1 2007 to Q3 2026, quarterly · read 30 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- Debt securities statistics (DSS) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q1 2007 to Q3 2026, quarterly · read 27 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- Credit to the non-financial sector (GDP for every ratio) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q1 2007 to Q3 2026, quarterly · via money-flow method
Calculations: datasteg global-network.
Pooled by reliance on FX credit
The 36 economies split into terciles by their mean A1 (FX credit to GDP) over the sample. Within each tercile every economy-quarter is pooled; the slope is export growth two quarters later regressed on the dollar’s y/y change, in percentage points of export growth per 1% of dollar appreciation.
| Tercile | Correlation | Slope | Quarters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low FX credit China · Portugal · Italy · Spain · New Zealand · Czechia · Thailand · India · Poland · Germany · Belgium · Japan | −0.20 | −4.28 | 889 |
| Middle South Africa · Israel · Brazil · France · Korea · Finland · Greece · Russia · Argentina · Austria · Malaysia · Colombia | −0.23 | −4.22 | 861 |
| High FX credit Norway · Indonesia · Hungary · Australia · Mexico · Saudi Arabia · Denmark · Sweden · Canada · Türkiye · Chile · UK | −0.18 | −6.38 | 852 |
The high FX credit tercile has the steepest slope (−6.38 points of export growth per 1% of dollar appreciation, against −4.28 for the low tercile and −4.22 for the middle). The correlations are modest everywhere, −0.20, −0.23 and −0.18 from low to high: the dollar’s change explains a small part of export growth, and the sign is the one the mechanism predicts.
- FRED, Federal Reserve H.4.1 and H.10 series · Federal Reserve Board, via FRED (St. Louis Fed), public domain, citation requested ·
DTWEXBGS· quarterly averages · read 3 Nov 2026 · via money-flow method - UN Comtrade, goods trade by reporter and partner · UN Statistics Division, derived records only (shares × world total) · 12-month windows at quarter ends · read 2 Nov 2026 · via trade-flow method
- Locational banking statistics (LBS) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q1 2007 to Q3 2026, quarterly · read 30 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- Debt securities statistics (DSS) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q1 2007 to Q3 2026, quarterly · read 27 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- Credit to the non-financial sector (GDP for every ratio) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q1 2007 to Q3 2026, quarterly · via money-flow method
Calculations: datasteg global-network.
Italy: each quarter as a point
Q1 2007–Q4 2025Horizontal: the dollar’s change on a year earlier in the quarter. Vertical: the economy’s 12-month export growth two quarters later. The tangerine point is the latest pair. Choose another economy below.
- FRED, Federal Reserve H.4.1 and H.10 series · Federal Reserve Board, via FRED (St. Louis Fed), public domain, citation requested ·
DTWEXBGS· quarterly averages · read 3 Nov 2026 · via money-flow method - UN Comtrade, goods trade by reporter and partner · UN Statistics Division, derived records only (shares × world total) · 12-month windows at quarter ends · read 2 Nov 2026 · via trade-flow method
- Locational banking statistics (LBS) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q1 2007 to Q4 2025, quarterly · read 30 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- Debt securities statistics (DSS) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q1 2007 to Q4 2025, quarterly · read 27 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- Credit to the non-financial sector (GDP for every ratio) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q1 2007 to Q4 2025, quarterly · via money-flow method
Calculations: datasteg global-network.
Economy by economy
Correlation of the dollar’s y/y change with the economy’s export growth two quarters later, its mean A1 over the sample, and the latest pair of points. Sorted from the most negative correlation.
| Economy | Corr. | Mean A1 | Quarters | Latest dollar y/y | Exports two quarters later |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poland | −0.77 | 5.9% | 76 | −4.0% Q4 2025 | +11.4% Q2 2026 |
| Spain | −0.74 | 4.0% | 76 | −4.0% Q4 2025 | +7.1% Q2 2026 |
| France | −0.70 | 10.6% | 74 | −0.1% Q2 2025 | +8.1% Q4 2025 |
| Chile | −0.69 | 37.6% | 76 | −4.0% Q4 2025 | +14.5% Q2 2026 |
| Korea | −0.69 | 10.7% | 76 | −4.0% Q4 2025 | +23.6% Q2 2026 |
| Italy | −0.68 | 2.4% | 76 | −4.0% Q4 2025 | +11.6% Q2 2026 |
| Brazil | −0.65 | 10.0% | 76 | −4.0% Q4 2025 | +7.8% Q2 2026 |
| Türkiye | −0.65 | 32.0% | 74 | −0.1% Q2 2025 | +6.2% Q4 2025 |
| Portugal | −0.55 | 2.2% | 76 | −4.0% Q4 2025 | +6.1% Q2 2026 |
| Russia | −0.47 | 11.9% | 56 | +2.6% Q2 2024 | −10.0% Q4 2024 |
| Norway | −0.46 | 16.2% | 76 | −4.0% Q4 2025 | +5.5% Q2 2026 |
| Belgium | −0.41 | 6.9% | 76 | −4.0% Q4 2025 | +5.0% Q2 2026 |
| Greece | −0.38 | 11.7% | 76 | −4.0% Q4 2025 | +9.8% Q2 2026 |
| Argentina | −0.37 | 14.9% | 76 | −4.0% Q4 2025 | +13.8% Q2 2026 |
| Finland | −0.36 | 11.7% | 76 | −4.0% Q4 2025 | +12.3% Q2 2026 |
| Sweden | −0.36 | 23.6% | 76 | −4.0% Q4 2025 | +8.7% Q2 2026 |
| Denmark | −0.33 | 23.4% | 76 | −4.0% Q4 2025 | +10.4% Q2 2026 |
| UK | −0.33 | 62.4% | 76 | −4.0% Q4 2025 | +6.4% Q2 2026 |
| Israel | −0.33 | 9.9% | 66 | −0.1% Q2 2025 | +6.0% Q4 2025 |
| India | −0.32 | 5.7% | 76 | −4.0% Q4 2025 | +6.2% Q2 2026 |
| Colombia | −0.31 | 15.5% | 74 | −2.0% Q3 2025 | +5.9% Q1 2026 |
| Czechia | −0.30 | 4.6% | 76 | −4.0% Q4 2025 | +14.6% Q2 2026 |
| Hungary | −0.30 | 16.4% | 60 | −4.0% Q4 2025 | +11.3% Q2 2026 |
| South Africa | −0.30 | 9.2% | 75 | −2.0% Q3 2025 | +11.7% Q1 2026 |
| Saudi Arabia | −0.29 | 19.4% | 50 | −2.0% Q3 2025 | +36.9% Q1 2026 |
| Austria | −0.27 | 15.1% | 68 | −4.0% Q4 2025 | +2.8% Q2 2026 |
| China | −0.26 | 1.7% | 54 | +2.6% Q2 2024 | +5.7% Q4 2024 |
| Japan | −0.26 | 7.0% | 76 | −4.0% Q4 2025 | +5.6% Q2 2026 |
| Australia | −0.25 | 17.2% | 76 | −4.0% Q4 2025 | +10.5% Q2 2026 |
| Canada | −0.25 | 30.6% | 76 | −4.0% Q4 2025 | +5.7% Q2 2026 |
| Indonesia | −0.25 | 16.3% | 60 | −4.0% Q4 2025 | +5.3% Q2 2026 |
| New Zealand | −0.25 | 4.5% | 76 | −4.0% Q4 2025 | +8.9% Q2 2026 |
| Mexico | −0.24 | 18.9% | 76 | −4.0% Q4 2025 | +11.0% Q2 2026 |
| Thailand | −0.24 | 4.6% | 75 | −2.0% Q3 2025 | +19.7% Q1 2026 |
| Malaysia | −0.23 | 15.1% | 68 | −4.0% Q4 2025 | +30.3% Q2 2026 |
| Germany | −0.07 | 6.2% | 76 | −4.0% Q4 2025 | +7.8% Q2 2026 |
Nothing here is a forecast. The relation is historical and drawn on these two datasets only; the lag of two quarters is fixed in the build, not fitted.
- FRED, Federal Reserve H.4.1 and H.10 series · Federal Reserve Board, via FRED (St. Louis Fed), public domain, citation requested ·
DTWEXBGS· quarterly averages · read 3 Nov 2026 · via money-flow method - UN Comtrade, goods trade by reporter and partner · UN Statistics Division, derived records only (shares × world total) · 12-month windows at quarter ends · read 2 Nov 2026 · via trade-flow method
- Locational banking statistics (LBS) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q1 2007 to Q3 2026, quarterly · read 30 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- Debt securities statistics (DSS) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q1 2007 to Q3 2026, quarterly · read 27 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- Credit to the non-financial sector (GDP for every ratio) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q1 2007 to Q3 2026, quarterly · via money-flow method
Calculations: datasteg global-network.