Stress signals · Q2 2026 · Jul 2026
Stress signals from funding and trade together
Seven signals, each a money quantity from money-flow set against a trade quantity from trade-flow, scored every quarter for the 36 board economies with nothing read from later periods. Each one fires at a threshold; the count says how many fired. They are shown beside money-flow’s vulnerability score V, and every one carries its test against past stress.
No composite is published. Under rule G19 a signal joins a composite only if it beats the better of its two single-side inputs, with the 90% interval of the gain above zero. None of the seven did on this build’s funding episodes, so the page shows the seven signals beside V and the count, as the plan said it would.
Trade events
For each shock replay: the count one quarter before the shock against the 3-month export fall each economy then suffered (from the replay). A positive rank correlation means the economies with more signals fell further.
COVID-19, 2020 Q4 2019
Spearman +0.02 (one-sided permutation p = 0.446, 35 economies)
| Economy | Count before | Export change | At |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 1 | −47.9% | Jun 2020 |
| India | 0 | −37.3% | Jun 2020 |
| Mexico | 1 | −37.2% | Jun 2020 |
| Norway | 1 | −35.7% | Jun 2020 |
| Colombia | 2 | −34.8% | Jun 2020 |
| Canada | 2 | −34.3% | Jun 2020 |
| France | 1 | −33.7% | Jun 2020 |
| Russia | 1 | −33.4% | Jun 2020 |
| South Africa | 1 | −31.5% | Jun 2020 |
| Portugal | 1 | −28.0% | Jun 2020 |
| Türkiye | 0 | −28.0% | May 2020 |
| Czechia | 0 | −27.6% | May 2020 |
Strait of Hormuz, 2026 Q4 2025
Spearman +0.35 (one-sided permutation p = 0.027, 32 economies)
| Economy | Count before | Export change | At |
|---|---|---|---|
| Israel | 1 | −9.9% | May 2026 |
| Saudi Arabia | 1 | −3.8% | Mar 2026 |
| Indonesia | 1 | −1.8% | Jul 2026 |
| UK | 1 | +0.1% | Mar 2026 |
| India | 0 | +0.2% | Mar 2026 |
| Denmark | 1 | +0.6% | Jul 2026 |
| Norway | 2 | +0.7% | Mar 2026 |
| Austria | 0 | +1.3% | Jun 2026 |
| Canada | 2 | +2.1% | Mar 2026 |
| Japan | 0 | +3.6% | May 2026 |
| Germany | 1 | +4.5% | Jul 2026 |
| Colombia | 2 | +4.7% | Mar 2026 |
Lehman and the trade collapse, 2008 Q2 2008
Spearman +0.22 (one-sided permutation p = 0.116, 33 economies)
| Economy | Count before | Export change | At |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | 3 | −50.4% | Jun 2009 |
| Norway | 3 | −46.8% | Jun 2009 |
| Finland | 1 | −44.3% | Jun 2009 |
| Colombia | 2 | −42.4% | Jul 2009 |
| Sweden | 1 | −41.8% | May 2009 |
| Mexico | 2 | −40.7% | Jun 2009 |
| Canada | 2 | −39.3% | Jul 2009 |
| Chile | 0 | −38.6% | Mar 2009 |
| UK | 1 | −37.0% | May 2009 |
| South Africa | 3 | −36.0% | Jun 2009 |
| Belgium | 1 | −35.1% | May 2009 |
| Germany | 1 | −34.5% | Jun 2009 |
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, 2022 Q4 2021
Spearman −0.48 (one-sided permutation p = 0.999, 36 economies)
| Economy | Count before | Export change | At |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | 0 | −27.9% | Feb 2023 |
| Korea | 0 | −17.1% | Feb 2023 |
| China | 0 | −10.8% | Feb 2023 |
| Finland | 0 | −8.5% | Feb 2023 |
| Malaysia | 0 | −6.8% | Feb 2023 |
| Thailand | 0 | −6.7% | Feb 2023 |
| South Africa | 0 | −6.5% | Jun 2022 |
| Japan | 0 | −5.6% | Feb 2023 |
| New Zealand | 2 | −4.0% | Feb 2023 |
| UK | 1 | −2.9% | Dec 2022 |
| Israel | 0 | −2.8% | Feb 2023 |
| India | 0 | −2.6% | Feb 2023 |
- Locational banking statistics (LBS) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q1 2005 to Q2 2026, quarterly · read 30 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- Consolidated banking statistics (CBS) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q1 2005 to Q2 2026, quarterly · read 30 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- Debt securities statistics (DSS) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q1 2005 to Q2 2026, quarterly · read 27 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity (IRFCL) · IMF, open, with attribution · Q1 2005 to Q2 2026, quarterly · read 29 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- International Investment Position (IIP) · IMF, open, with attribution · Q1 2005 to Q2 2026, quarterly · read 27 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- Balance of Payments (BOP) · IMF, open, with attribution · Q1 2005 to Q2 2026, quarterly · read 27 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- Credit to the non-financial sector (GDP for every ratio) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q1 2005 to Q2 2026, quarterly · via money-flow method
- FRED, Federal Reserve H.4.1 and H.10 series · Federal Reserve Board, via FRED (St. Louis Fed), public domain, citation requested ·
DTWEXBGS· read 31 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method - UN Comtrade, goods trade by reporter and partner · UN Statistics Division, derived records only (shares × world total) · 12-month window, Aug 2025–Jul 2026 · read 2 Nov 2026 · via trade-flow method
Board quarters to Q2 2026; trade windows to Jul 2026. Calculations: datasteg global-network (scripts/stress.py).