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Stress signals · Q2 2026 · Jul 2026

Stress signals from funding and trade together

Seven signals, each a money quantity from money-flow set against a trade quantity from trade-flow, scored every quarter for the 36 board economies with nothing read from later periods. Each one fires at a threshold; the count says how many fired. They are shown beside money-flow’s , and every one carries its test against past stress.

No composite is published. Under rule G19 a signal joins a composite only if it beats the better of its two single-side inputs, with the 90% interval of the gain above zero. None of the seven did on this build’s funding episodes, so the page shows the seven signals beside V and the count, as the plan said it would.

Stress imported through trade

Q2 2026

Each row is an exporter; each cell is how many points of its J4 one destination contributes: the destination’s share of the exporter’s covered exports times the destination’s V (Q2 2026). The United States counts as V = 0 (rule W6); partners outside the board are not covered, and the covered share is printed.

Partners’ V (J4)Partners’ F (fast version)
Rows101536
EconomyJ4CoveredUKFranceChinaGermanySpainBrazilItalyPolandAustraliaTürkiyeSwedenPortugal
Norway39.766%18.91.32.14.66.1
Spain39.164%7.111.62.64.21.82.66.4
Argentina38.552%5.316.8
Germany37.175%4.65.01.61.60.82.43.30.61.60.90.5
Italy34.366%5.27.71.32.82.61.02.12.00.5
Belgium33.758%5.313.83.62.13.51.91.60.8
Portugal33.666%5.28.61.52.810.92.12.6
New Zealand33.067%2.78.811.3
South Africa32.958%16.87.02.1
Poland31.568%5.74.65.61.42.11.71.30.3

Q2 2026

Economy-partner pairs ranked by the smaller of the two shares: the partner’s share of the economy’s bank borrowing (BIS LBS) and of its exports (trade-flow). A shock to that partner arrives through both channels at once.

EconomyPartnerShare of bank borrowingShare of exportsOverlap
CanadaUnited States49.5%61.3%49.5%Pair →
MexicoUnited States49.5%74.9%49.5%Pair →
ColombiaUnited States31.9%31.4%31.4%Pair →
PortugalSpain36.6%20.4%20.4%Pair →
NorwayUK35.4%18.6%18.6%Pair →
JapanUnited States24.4%16.6%16.6%Pair →
ChileUnited States39.7%16.0%16.0%Pair →
South AfricaUK32.6%14.6%14.6%Pair →
UKUnited States32.5%14.5%14.5%Pair →
BelgiumFrance36.0%13.8%13.8%Pair →
IsraelUnited States13.5%26.1%13.5%Pair →
BelgiumNetherlands13.3%16.7%13.3%
SpainFrance30.6%12.7%12.7%Pair →
NorwaySweden18.9%12.2%12.2%Pair →
FinlandSweden27.9%11.9%11.9%Pair →
New ZealandAustralia37.1%11.5%11.5%Pair →
DenmarkSweden27.6%10.7%10.7%Pair →
IndiaUnited States10.6%20.1%10.6%Pair →
KoreaUnited States10.0%14.6%10.0%Pair →
ArgentinaUnited States18.1%9.9%9.9%Pair →
PortugalFrance29.8%9.8%9.8%Pair →
GermanyUnited States9.7%9.2%9.2%Pair →
BrazilUnited States32.5%8.8%8.8%Pair →
ItalyFrance53.1%8.8%8.8%Pair →
CanadaUK32.6%8.1%8.1%Pair →
Sources

Board quarters to Q2 2026; trade windows to Jul 2026. Calculations: datasteg global-network (scripts/stress.py).