Stress signals · Q2 2026 · Jul 2026
Stress signals from funding and trade together
Seven signals, each a money quantity from money-flow set against a trade quantity from trade-flow, scored every quarter for the 36 board economies with nothing read from later periods. Each one fires at a threshold; the count says how many fired. They are shown beside money-flow’s vulnerability score V, and every one carries its test against past stress.
No composite is published. Under rule G19 a signal joins a composite only if it beats the better of its two single-side inputs, with the 90% interval of the gain above zero. None of the seven did on this build’s funding episodes, so the page shows the seven signals beside V and the count, as the plan said it would.
- Locational banking statistics (LBS) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q1 2005 to Q2 2026, quarterly · read 30 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- Consolidated banking statistics (CBS) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q1 2005 to Q2 2026, quarterly · read 30 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- Debt securities statistics (DSS) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q1 2005 to Q2 2026, quarterly · read 27 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity (IRFCL) · IMF, open, with attribution · Q1 2005 to Q2 2026, quarterly · read 29 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- International Investment Position (IIP) · IMF, open, with attribution · Q1 2005 to Q2 2026, quarterly · read 27 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- Balance of Payments (BOP) · IMF, open, with attribution · Q1 2005 to Q2 2026, quarterly · read 27 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- Credit to the non-financial sector (GDP for every ratio) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q1 2005 to Q2 2026, quarterly · via money-flow method
- FRED, Federal Reserve H.4.1 and H.10 series · Federal Reserve Board, via FRED (St. Louis Fed), public domain, citation requested ·
DTWEXBGS· read 31 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method - UN Comtrade, goods trade by reporter and partner · UN Statistics Division, derived records only (shares × world total) · 12-month window, Aug 2025–Jul 2026 · read 2 Nov 2026 · via trade-flow method
Board quarters to Q2 2026; trade windows to Jul 2026. Calculations: datasteg global-network (scripts/stress.py).