Stress signals · Q2 2026 · Jul 2026
Stress signals from funding and trade together
Seven signals, each a money quantity from money-flow set against a trade quantity from trade-flow, scored every quarter for the 36 board economies with nothing read from later periods. Each one fires at a threshold; the count says how many fired. They are shown beside money-flow’s vulnerability score V, and every one carries its test against past stress.
No composite is published. Under rule G19 a signal joins a composite only if it beats the better of its two single-side inputs, with the 90% interval of the gain above zero. None of the seven did on this build’s funding episodes, so the page shows the seven signals beside V and the count, as the plan said it would.
Stress imported through trade
Q2 2026Each row is an exporter; each cell is how many points of its J4 one destination contributes: the destination’s share of the exporter’s covered exports times the destination’s V (Q2 2026). The United States counts as V = 0 (rule W6); partners outside the board are not covered, and the covered share is printed.
| Economy | J4 | Covered | UK | France | China | Germany | Poland | Spain | Italy | Brazil | Sweden | Japan | Türkiye | Australia |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | 39.7 | 66% | 18.9 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 6.1 | |||||||
| Spain | 39.1 | 64% | 7.1 | 11.6 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 4.2 | 2.6 | ||||||
| Argentina | 38.5 | 52% | 5.3 | 16.8 | ||||||||||
| Germany | 37.1 | 75% | 4.6 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | |
| Italy | 34.3 | 66% | 5.2 | 7.7 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 2.0 | |||
| Belgium | 33.7 | 58% | 5.3 | 13.8 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | |||||
| Portugal | 33.6 | 66% | 5.2 | 8.6 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 10.9 | 2.1 | 2.6 | |||||
| New Zealand | 33.0 | 67% | 2.7 | 8.8 | 3.1 | 11.3 | ||||||||
| South Africa | 32.9 | 58% | 16.8 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 3.2 | ||||||||
| Poland | 31.5 | 68% | 5.7 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.7 | |||||
| Australia | 31.0 | 79% | 2.8 | 10.8 | 6.0 | |||||||||
| Czechia | 29.5 | 60% | 5.0 | 4.7 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.2 | |||||||
| Denmark | 29.3 | 59% | 5.2 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 6.0 | 1.6 | 5.9 | |||||
| France | 29.3 | 65% | 6.2 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 1.9 | |||
| Sweden | 29.2 | 56% | 5.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 3.0 |
The same partner lends and buys (J5)
Q2 2026Economy-partner pairs ranked by the smaller of the two shares: the partner’s share of the economy’s bank borrowing (BIS LBS) and of its exports (trade-flow). A shock to that partner arrives through both channels at once.
| Economy | Partner | Share of bank borrowing | Share of exports | Overlap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | United States | 49.5% | 61.3% | 49.5% | Pair → |
| Mexico | United States | 49.5% | 74.9% | 49.5% | Pair → |
| Colombia | United States | 31.9% | 31.4% | 31.4% | Pair → |
| Portugal | Spain | 36.6% | 20.4% | 20.4% | Pair → |
| Norway | UK | 35.4% | 18.6% | 18.6% | Pair → |
| Japan | United States | 24.4% | 16.6% | 16.6% | Pair → |
| Chile | United States | 39.7% | 16.0% | 16.0% | Pair → |
| South Africa | UK | 32.6% | 14.6% | 14.6% | Pair → |
| UK | United States | 32.5% | 14.5% | 14.5% | Pair → |
| Belgium | France | 36.0% | 13.8% | 13.8% | Pair → |
| Israel | United States | 13.5% | 26.1% | 13.5% | Pair → |
| Belgium | Netherlands | 13.3% | 16.7% | 13.3% | |
| Spain | France | 30.6% | 12.7% | 12.7% | Pair → |
| Norway | Sweden | 18.9% | 12.2% | 12.2% | Pair → |
| Finland | Sweden | 27.9% | 11.9% | 11.9% | Pair → |
| New Zealand | Australia | 37.1% | 11.5% | 11.5% | Pair → |
| Denmark | Sweden | 27.6% | 10.7% | 10.7% | Pair → |
| India | United States | 10.6% | 20.1% | 10.6% | Pair → |
| Korea | United States | 10.0% | 14.6% | 10.0% | Pair → |
| Argentina | United States | 18.1% | 9.9% | 9.9% | Pair → |
| Portugal | France | 29.8% | 9.8% | 9.8% | Pair → |
| Germany | United States | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.2% | Pair → |
| Brazil | United States | 32.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% | Pair → |
| Italy | France | 53.1% | 8.8% | 8.8% | Pair → |
| Canada | UK | 32.6% | 8.1% | 8.1% | Pair → |
- Locational banking statistics (LBS) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q1 2005 to Q2 2026, quarterly · read 30 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- Consolidated banking statistics (CBS) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q1 2005 to Q2 2026, quarterly · read 30 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- Debt securities statistics (DSS) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q1 2005 to Q2 2026, quarterly · read 27 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity (IRFCL) · IMF, open, with attribution · Q1 2005 to Q2 2026, quarterly · read 29 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- International Investment Position (IIP) · IMF, open, with attribution · Q1 2005 to Q2 2026, quarterly · read 27 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- Balance of Payments (BOP) · IMF, open, with attribution · Q1 2005 to Q2 2026, quarterly · read 27 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- Credit to the non-financial sector (GDP for every ratio) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q1 2005 to Q2 2026, quarterly · via money-flow method
- FRED, Federal Reserve H.4.1 and H.10 series · Federal Reserve Board, via FRED (St. Louis Fed), public domain, citation requested ·
DTWEXBGS· read 31 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method - UN Comtrade, goods trade by reporter and partner · UN Statistics Division, derived records only (shares × world total) · 12-month window, Aug 2025–Jul 2026 · read 2 Nov 2026 · via trade-flow method
Board quarters to Q2 2026; trade windows to Jul 2026. Calculations: datasteg global-network (scripts/stress.py).