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Stress signals · Q2 2026 · Jul 2026

Stress signals from funding and trade together

Seven signals, each a money quantity from money-flow set against a trade quantity from trade-flow, scored every quarter for the 36 board economies with nothing read from later periods. Each one fires at a threshold; the count says how many fired. They are shown beside money-flow’s , and every one carries its test against past stress.

No composite is published. Under rule G19 a signal joins a composite only if it beats the better of its two single-side inputs, with the 90% interval of the gain above zero. None of the seven did on this build’s funding episodes, so the page shows the seven signals beside V and the count, as the plan said it would.

Stress imported through trade

Q2 2026

Each row is an exporter; each cell is how many points of its J4 one destination contributes: the destination’s share of the exporter’s covered exports times the destination’s V (Q2 2026). The United States counts as V = 0 (rule W6); partners outside the board are not covered, and the covered share is printed.

Partners’ V (J4)Partners’ F (fast version)
Rows101536
EconomyJ4CoveredUKChinaFranceGermanyJapanPolandItalyIndiaSpainBrazilKoreaAustralia
Norway39.766%18.91.32.14.6
Spain39.164%7.111.62.61.84.2
Argentina38.552%5.34.016.8
Germany37.175%4.61.65.00.73.32.40.71.60.80.80.6
Italy34.366%5.21.37.72.81.12.12.61.0
Belgium33.758%5.313.83.61.93.52.1
Portugal33.666%5.21.58.62.82.110.9
New Zealand33.067%2.78.83.12.211.3
South Africa32.958%16.87.02.13.23.8
Poland31.568%5.74.65.62.11.4
Australia31.079%2.810.86.02.04.5
Czechia29.560%5.04.77.44.72.2
Denmark29.359%5.22.33.03.46.01.6
France29.365%6.21.82.71.63.33.21.1
Sweden29.256%5.71.74.23.0
Brazil28.265%11.10.61.41.61.2
Finland27.252%4.82.33.93.23.61.8
Korea27.163%8.71.30.42.10.81.50.92.1
Malaysia26.959%8.90.62.31.52.22.8
Japan26.864%1.96.60.71.63.82.0
Hungary26.655%5.14.26.73.42.7
Chile24.880%10.10.44.32.20.83.22.4
Indonesia24.860%9.54.14.12.4
Austria24.067%4.07.62.53.6
Thailand22.763%4.33.72.43.6
Colombia19.061%2.40.81.43.43.9
Israel14.056%2.78.61.21.5
Canada13.088%6.22.20.60.30.90.50.7
Mexico8.092%0.90.90.30.40.20.30.60.5
UK–45%2.09.13.52.3
Greece–32%9.22.03.98.43.2
India–43%4.62.42.81.32.5
Saudi Arabia–35%7.06.92.17.77.1
Türkiye–44%10.06.13.63.53.23.2

Q2 2026

Economy-partner pairs ranked by the smaller of the two shares: the partner’s share of the economy’s bank borrowing (BIS LBS) and of its exports (trade-flow). A shock to that partner arrives through both channels at once.

EconomyPartnerShare of bank borrowingShare of exportsOverlap
CanadaUnited States49.5%61.3%49.5%Pair →
MexicoUnited States49.5%74.9%49.5%Pair →
ColombiaUnited States31.9%31.4%31.4%Pair →
PortugalSpain36.6%20.4%20.4%Pair →
NorwayUK35.4%18.6%18.6%Pair →
JapanUnited States24.4%16.6%16.6%Pair →
ChileUnited States39.7%16.0%16.0%Pair →
South AfricaUK32.6%14.6%14.6%Pair →
UKUnited States32.5%14.5%14.5%Pair →
BelgiumFrance36.0%13.8%13.8%Pair →
IsraelUnited States13.5%26.1%13.5%Pair →
BelgiumNetherlands13.3%16.7%13.3%
SpainFrance30.6%12.7%12.7%Pair →
NorwaySweden18.9%12.2%12.2%Pair →
FinlandSweden27.9%11.9%11.9%Pair →
New ZealandAustralia37.1%11.5%11.5%Pair →
DenmarkSweden27.6%10.7%10.7%Pair →
IndiaUnited States10.6%20.1%10.6%Pair →
KoreaUnited States10.0%14.6%10.0%Pair →
ArgentinaUnited States18.1%9.9%9.9%Pair →
PortugalFrance29.8%9.8%9.8%Pair →
GermanyUnited States9.7%9.2%9.2%Pair →
BrazilUnited States32.5%8.8%8.8%Pair →
ItalyFrance53.1%8.8%8.8%Pair →
CanadaUK32.6%8.1%8.1%Pair →
Sources

Board quarters to Q2 2026; trade windows to Jul 2026. Calculations: datasteg global-network (scripts/stress.py).