Stress signals · Q2 2026 · Jul 2026
Stress signals from funding and trade together
Seven signals, each a money quantity from money-flow set against a trade quantity from trade-flow, scored every quarter for the 36 board economies with nothing read from later periods. Each one fires at a threshold; the count says how many fired. They are shown beside money-flow’s vulnerability score V, and every one carries its test against past stress.
No composite is published. Under rule G19 a signal joins a composite only if it beats the better of its two single-side inputs, with the 90% interval of the gain above zero. None of the seven did on this build’s funding episodes, so the page shows the seven signals beside V and the count, as the plan said it would.
Stress imported through trade
Q2 2026Each row is an exporter; each cell is how many points of its J4 one destination contributes: the destination’s share of the exporter’s covered exports times the destination’s V (Q2 2026). The United States counts as V = 0 (rule W6); partners outside the board are not covered, and the covered share is printed.
| Economy | F̄ | Covered | China | Belgium | Japan | Austria | Russia | South Africa | Greece | Argentina | UK | Sweden | Poland | Finland |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | +8.5 | 66% | −0.3 | −0.8 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 2.3 | ||||||
| Spain | +1.5 | 64% | −0.4 | −0.0 | −0.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | |||||||
| Argentina | −1.1 | 52% | −1.1 | |||||||||||
| Germany | +0.9 | 75% | −0.3 | −0.5 | −0.1 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −0.0 | −0.0 | −0.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| Italy | +0.5 | 66% | −0.3 | −0.4 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.1 | −0.0 | −0.0 | −0.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | |
| Belgium | +1.9 | 58% | −0.1 | −0.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.7 | |||||||
| Portugal | +0.6 | 66% | −0.3 | 1.0 | ||||||||||
| New Zealand | −2.0 | 67% | −1.9 | −0.6 | 0.5 | |||||||||
| South Africa | +1.0 | 58% | −1.5 | −0.6 | 3.2 | |||||||||
| Poland | +1.5 | 68% | −0.3 | −0.1 | −0.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | ||||||
| Australia | −3.0 | 79% | −2.4 | −1.2 | 0.5 | |||||||||
| Czechia | +1.9 | 60% | −0.7 | 0.9 | 1.6 | |||||||||
| Denmark | +4.6 | 59% | −0.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | ||||||||
| France | +0.3 | 65% | −0.4 | −1.1 | −0.1 | −0.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.6 | |||||
| Sweden | +2.8 | 56% | −0.4 | −0.9 | −0.3 | 1.1 | 3.3 |
The same partner lends and buys (J5)
Q2 2026Economy-partner pairs ranked by the smaller of the two shares: the partner’s share of the economy’s bank borrowing (BIS LBS) and of its exports (trade-flow). A shock to that partner arrives through both channels at once.
| Economy | Partner | Share of bank borrowing | Share of exports | Overlap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | United States | 49.5% | 61.3% | 49.5% | Pair → |
| Mexico | United States | 49.5% | 74.9% | 49.5% | Pair → |
| Colombia | United States | 31.9% | 31.4% | 31.4% | Pair → |
| Portugal | Spain | 36.6% | 20.4% | 20.4% | Pair → |
| Norway | UK | 35.4% | 18.6% | 18.6% | Pair → |
| Japan | United States | 24.4% | 16.6% | 16.6% | Pair → |
| Chile | United States | 39.7% | 16.0% | 16.0% | Pair → |
| South Africa | UK | 32.6% | 14.6% | 14.6% | Pair → |
| UK | United States | 32.5% | 14.5% | 14.5% | Pair → |
| Belgium | France | 36.0% | 13.8% | 13.8% | Pair → |
| Israel | United States | 13.5% | 26.1% | 13.5% | Pair → |
| Belgium | Netherlands | 13.3% | 16.7% | 13.3% | |
| Spain | France | 30.6% | 12.7% | 12.7% | Pair → |
| Norway | Sweden | 18.9% | 12.2% | 12.2% | Pair → |
| Finland | Sweden | 27.9% | 11.9% | 11.9% | Pair → |
| New Zealand | Australia | 37.1% | 11.5% | 11.5% | Pair → |
| Denmark | Sweden | 27.6% | 10.7% | 10.7% | Pair → |
| India | United States | 10.6% | 20.1% | 10.6% | Pair → |
| Korea | United States | 10.0% | 14.6% | 10.0% | Pair → |
| Argentina | United States | 18.1% | 9.9% | 9.9% | Pair → |
| Portugal | France | 29.8% | 9.8% | 9.8% | Pair → |
| Germany | United States | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.2% | Pair → |
| Brazil | United States | 32.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% | Pair → |
| Italy | France | 53.1% | 8.8% | 8.8% | Pair → |
| Canada | UK | 32.6% | 8.1% | 8.1% | Pair → |
- Locational banking statistics (LBS) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q1 2005 to Q2 2026, quarterly · read 30 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- Consolidated banking statistics (CBS) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q1 2005 to Q2 2026, quarterly · read 30 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- Debt securities statistics (DSS) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q1 2005 to Q2 2026, quarterly · read 27 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity (IRFCL) · IMF, open, with attribution · Q1 2005 to Q2 2026, quarterly · read 29 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- International Investment Position (IIP) · IMF, open, with attribution · Q1 2005 to Q2 2026, quarterly · read 27 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- Balance of Payments (BOP) · IMF, open, with attribution · Q1 2005 to Q2 2026, quarterly · read 27 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- Credit to the non-financial sector (GDP for every ratio) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q1 2005 to Q2 2026, quarterly · via money-flow method
- FRED, Federal Reserve H.4.1 and H.10 series · Federal Reserve Board, via FRED (St. Louis Fed), public domain, citation requested ·
DTWEXBGS· read 31 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method - UN Comtrade, goods trade by reporter and partner · UN Statistics Division, derived records only (shares × world total) · 12-month window, Aug 2025–Jul 2026 · read 2 Nov 2026 · via trade-flow method
Board quarters to Q2 2026; trade windows to Jul 2026. Calculations: datasteg global-network (scripts/stress.py).