Digest: Q2 2026 funding, Jul 2026 trade

30 threshold crossings, joint moves first, no model behind them; mirror divergences are on the changes page.

• Q2 2026Lithium-ion batteries and electric cars: the chokepoint moved from Lithium carbonate to Lithium hydroxide (2024) while funding left China, a top exporter of the stage (77% of world exports), F +7.9 → −4.9
• Q2 2026Rare earths, magnets and motors: the chokepoint moved from Rare-earth ore (no own code) to Permanent magnets of metal (NdFeB, SmCo) (2024) while funding left China, a top exporter of the stage (64% of world exports), F +7.9 → −4.9
• Q2 2026Rare earths, magnets and motors: the chokepoint moved from Rare-earth ore (no own code) to Permanent magnets of metal (NdFeB, SmCo) (2024) while funding left Japan, a top exporter of the stage (9% of world exports), F +5.4 → −7.7
• Q2 2026Cotton and polyester to clothing: the chokepoint moved from none to Woven and knitted fabric (2024) while funding left China, a top exporter of the stage (53% of world exports), F +7.9 → −4.9
• Q2 2026Canada: the stress count fell below 3, 3 → 2 (J2 J5) · Stress signals →
• Q2 2026Poland: stress at its export destinations (J4) rose a tercile, 30.4 → 31.5 · Stress signals →
• Q2 2026Argentina: funding turned to withdrawal, F +16.2 → −8.8 (bank +0.6, bond −2.9 bn)
• Q2 2026Austria: funding turned to withdrawal, F +14.3 → −8.0 (bank +0.8, bond −9.4 bn)
• Q2 2026Belgium: funding turned to withdrawal, F +31.8 → −11.8 (bank −24.7, bond +6.3 bn)
• Q2 2026China: funding turned to withdrawal, F +7.9 → −4.9 (bank −8.5, bond −9.5 bn)
• Q2 2026Greece entered the at-risk quadrant: V 59.5 → 60.0, F +10.1 → −2.7
• Q2 2026Greece: funding turned to withdrawal, F +10.1 → −2.7 (bank −4.5, bond +3.2 bn)
• Q2 2026Greece: short-term bank claims rose above net reserves, A2 99 → 101
• Q2 2026Italy: funding turned to inflow, F −6.8 → +9.2 (bank +13.1, bond +24.3 bn)
• Q2 2026Japan: funding turned to withdrawal, F +5.4 → −7.7 (bank −77.0, bond +31.6 bn)
• Q2 2026Norway: funding turned to inflow, F −32.6 → +65.6 (bank +86.9, bond +8.4 bn)
• Q2 2026New Zealand left the at-risk quadrant: V 64, F +8.9
• Q2 2026New Zealand: funding turned to inflow, F −4.0 → +8.9 (bank +0.4, bond +0.9 bn)
• Q2 2026New Zealand: short-term bank claims rose above net reserves, A2 86 → 103
• Q2 2026Thailand: funding turned to inflow, F −4.8 → +19.1 (bank +4.1, bond −0.3 bn)
• Q2 2026Türkiye: short-term bank claims rose above net reserves, A2 97 → 102
• Dec 2024Bangladesh: 12-month exports turned up on a year earlier, −0.2% → +3.2%
• May 2025Oman: 12-month exports turned down on a year earlier, +0.4% → −0.4%
• Dec 2025Pakistan: 12-month exports turned down on a year earlier, +1.6% → −0.1%
• Dec 2025TTO: 12-month exports turned up on a year earlier, −1.6% → +0.9%
• Dec 2024Sri Lanka: 12-month exports turned up on a year earlier, −0.2% → +2.1%
• Mar 2026Paraguay: 12-month exports turned up on a year earlier, −0.3% → +5.0%
• 2024Lithium-ion batteries and electric cars: chokepoint stage changed, Lithium carbonate → Lithium hydroxide (2024)
• 2024Rare earths, magnets and motors: chokepoint stage changed, Rare-earth ore (no own code) → Permanent magnets of metal (NdFeB, SmCo) (2024)
• 2024Cotton and polyester to clothing: chokepoint stage changed, none → Woven and knitted fabric (2024)

All changes

Funding: Q2 2026, money-flow release 20261102.2 (method 1.4). Trade: UN Comtrade 12-month windows to Jul 2026 via trade-flow, partner-reported where the importer has not filed. Pulse: Federal Reserve and TIC series to 2 Nov 2026, as money-flow publishes them.

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