Skip to content

What changed · Q2 2026 · Jul 2026

Threshold crossings, this quarter and this month

No model is behind this list, only thresholds. Joint items pair a funding move with a trade move in the same economy or chain. Funding items are money-flow’s, Q1 2026 to Q2 2026; trade items are trade-flow’s, Jun 2026 to Jul 2026 at each economy’s own shown month, and the last complete year against the one before for chokepoints.

Funding and trade together

6Q2 2026 · Jul 2026

Four kinds, computed here from the two feeds; two of them come from the stress signals. Neither parent can see them alone.

Funding left while exports fell 0

In the same economy this period, the turned negative (money-flow) and turned down on a year earlier (trade-flow).

None this period.

The stress count crossed K 1

The number of at threshold reached K (3) or more this quarter, or fell below it, at the default thresholds.

Partner stress rose by a tercile 1

, the trade-weighted vulnerability of an economy’s export destinations, moved up a tercile of its pooled distribution this quarter.

A chokepoint moved while a lender withdrew 4

A chain’s stage changed between the last two complete years (trade-flow) and, this quarter, funding left one of the five largest exporters of that stage (money-flow F turned negative).

  • Q2 2026Lithium-ion batteries and electric cars: the chokepoint moved from Lithium carbonate to Lithium hydroxide (2024) while funding left China, a top exporter of the stage (77% of world exports), F +7.9 → −4.9 · money-flow → · trade-flow →
  • Q2 2026Rare earths, magnets and motors: the chokepoint moved from Rare-earth ore (no own code) to Permanent magnets of metal (NdFeB, SmCo) (2024) while funding left China, a top exporter of the stage (64% of world exports), F +7.9 → −4.9 · money-flow → · trade-flow →
  • Q2 2026Rare earths, magnets and motors: the chokepoint moved from Rare-earth ore (no own code) to Permanent magnets of metal (NdFeB, SmCo) (2024) while funding left Japan, a top exporter of the stage (9% of world exports), F +5.4 → −7.7 · money-flow → · trade-flow →
  • Q2 2026Cotton and polyester to clothing: the chokepoint moved from none to Woven and knitted fabric (2024) while funding left China, a top exporter of the stage (53% of world exports), F +7.9 → −4.9 · money-flow → · trade-flow →
Sources

money-flow changes/global and trade-flow changes.json, joined on the economy and the chain’s top exporters by this site’s build. Calculations: datasteg.

Funding (money-flow)

Q1 2026 → Q2 2026

Entered the at-risk quadrant 1

at or above 60 while is below zero: the . Entries were outside it a quarter earlier.

Left the at-risk quadrant 1

In the quadrant (V ≥ 60 and F < 0) a quarter earlier and not now.

Funding changed direction 10

The changed sign; the bank and bond parts of the latest quarter in USD bn.

  • Q2 2026Argentina: funding turned to withdrawal, F +16.2 → −8.8 (bank +0.6, bond −2.9 bn) · money-flow →
  • Q2 2026Austria: funding turned to withdrawal, F +14.3 → −8.0 (bank +0.8, bond −9.4 bn) · money-flow →
  • Q2 2026Belgium: funding turned to withdrawal, F +31.8 → −11.8 (bank −24.7, bond +6.3 bn) · money-flow →
  • Q2 2026China: funding turned to withdrawal, F +7.9 → −4.9 (bank −8.5, bond −9.5 bn) · money-flow →
  • Q2 2026Greece: funding turned to withdrawal, F +10.1 → −2.7 (bank −4.5, bond +3.2 bn) · money-flow →
  • Q2 2026Italy: funding turned to inflow, F −6.8 → +9.2 (bank +13.1, bond +24.3 bn) · money-flow →
  • Q2 2026Japan: funding turned to withdrawal, F +5.4 → −7.7 (bank −77.0, bond +31.6 bn) · money-flow →
  • Q2 2026Norway: funding turned to inflow, F −32.6 → +65.6 (bank +86.9, bond +8.4 bn) · money-flow →
  • Q2 2026New Zealand: funding turned to inflow, F −4.0 → +8.9 (bank +0.4, bond +0.9 bn) · money-flow →
  • Q2 2026Thailand: funding turned to inflow, F −4.8 → +19.1 (bank +4.1, bond −0.3 bn) · money-flow →

Short-term bank debt crossed net reserves 3

crossed 100% in either direction.

V moved 10 points or more 0

The moved by ten points or more in one quarter.

None this period.

Every board move on money-flow →

Sources

Published by money-flow (changes/global) at its release, method 1.4; Q1 2026 to Q2 2026. Shown as published, not recomputed.

Trade (trade-flow)

Jun 2026 → Jul 2026

12-month exports changed direction 6

changed sign at the economy’s own shown month.

A top-5 destination reported differently 23

The importer’s report over the exporter’s is outside the pair’s usual range (a ).

  • Jul 2026United States → Mexico: the two reports diverge, ratio below its usual level (0.71) · trade-flow →
  • Jul 2026Korea → United States: the two reports diverge, ratio below its usual level (0.92) · trade-flow →
  • Jul 2026Korea → Hong Kong SAR: the two reports diverge, ratio below its usual level (0.87) · trade-flow →
  • Jul 2026India → Hong Kong SAR: the two reports diverge, ratio above its usual level (1.74) · trade-flow →
  • Jul 2026Mexico → Korea: the two reports diverge, ratio below its usual level (1.50) · trade-flow →
  • Jul 2026Italy → United States: the two reports diverge, ratio below its usual level (0.91) · trade-flow →
  • Jul 2026Italy → UK: the two reports diverge, ratio above its usual level (1.23) · trade-flow →
  • Jul 2026Canada → Japan: the two reports diverge, ratio above its usual level (1.33) · trade-flow →
  • Jul 2026Malaysia → United States: the two reports diverge, ratio below its usual level (0.84) · trade-flow →
  • Mar 2026Singapore → United States: the two reports diverge, ratio below its usual level (0.62) · trade-flow →
  • May 2026Thailand → United States: the two reports diverge, ratio above its usual level (1.42) · trade-flow →
  • Jul 2026Ireland → Germany: the two reports diverge, ratio above its usual level (1.49) · trade-flow →
  • Jul 2026Hungary → United States: the two reports diverge, ratio below its usual level (1.41) · trade-flow →
  • Sep 2025Philippines → Germany: the two reports diverge, ratio below its usual level (1.75) · trade-flow →
  • Jul 2026Denmark → United States: the two reports diverge, ratio below its usual level (1.25) · trade-flow →
  • Dec 2024Kuwait → Korea: the two reports diverge, ratio below its usual level (250.00) · trade-flow →
  • Jul 2026Finland → Netherlands: the two reports diverge, ratio above its usual level (0.86) · trade-flow →
  • Dec 2025Israel → Ireland: the two reports diverge, ratio above its usual level (2.46) · trade-flow →
  • Dec 2025Israel → Germany: the two reports diverge, ratio below its usual level (1.14) · trade-flow →
  • Jun 2026Slovenia → Germany: the two reports diverge, ratio above its usual level (1.09) · trade-flow →
  • Mar 2022Belarus → Ukraine: the two reports diverge, ratio above its usual level (3.32) · trade-flow →
  • Oct 2025UZB → UK: the two reports diverge, ratio above its usual level (1,550.00) · trade-flow →
  • Mar 2026Paraguay → Argentina: the two reports diverge, ratio below its usual level (0.86) · trade-flow →

A chokepoint moved along a chain 3

The stage of a chain in the last complete year is not the stage of the year before.

  • 2024Lithium-ion batteries and electric cars: chokepoint stage changed, Lithium carbonate → Lithium hydroxide (2024) · trade-flow →
  • 2024Rare earths, magnets and motors: chokepoint stage changed, Rare-earth ore (no own code) → Permanent magnets of metal (NdFeB, SmCo) (2024) · trade-flow →
  • 2024Cotton and polyester to clothing: chokepoint stage changed, none → Woven and knitted fabric (2024) · trade-flow →

Every event and chain on trade-flow →

Sources

Published by trade-flow (changes.json) at its build: 12-month windows to Jul 2026; chains in 2024. Shown as published, not recomputed.