Stress signals · Q2 2026 · Jul 2026
Stress signals from funding and trade together
Seven signals, each a money quantity from money-flow set against a trade quantity from trade-flow, scored every quarter for the 36 board economies with nothing read from later periods. Each one fires at a threshold; the count says how many fired. They are shown beside money-flow’s vulnerability score V, and every one carries its test against past stress.
No composite is published. Under rule G19 a signal joins a composite only if it beats the better of its two single-side inputs, with the 90% interval of the gain above zero. None of the seven did on this build’s funding episodes, so the page shows the seven signals beside V and the count, as the plan said it would.
Programme and default spells
money-flow’s Sovereign section dates IMF programmes and defaults. A spell counts as seen if the count reached 3 or more in any quarter of the 1 to 3 years before it started, at the default thresholds. Spells before 2008 have no count.
4 of 6 spells with data seen; 17.3% of calm years reached the same count; AUROC 0.761.
money-flow’s own Sovereign rules on the full set of spells: AUROC 0.493, hit rate 21.1%, false-signal rate 2.7%. money-flow →
| Economy | Start | Max | At K |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 1982-01-01 | – | no data |
| Argentina | 2000-03-10 | – | no data |
| Argentina | 2022-01-01 | 3 | ● reached |
| Brazil | 1983-01-01 | – | no data |
| Brazil | 1998-12-02 | – | no data |
| Chile | 1983-01-01 | – | no data |
| Colombia | 1999-12-20 | – | no data |
| Czechia | 1993-03-17 | – | no data |
| Spain | 2012-07-20 | 3 | ● reached |
| Greece | 2010-05-02 | 3 | ● reached |
| Hungary | 1990-03-14 | – | no data |
| Hungary | 2008-11-04 | 1 | ○ missed |
| Indonesia | 1997-11-05 | – | no data |
| Indonesia | 2005-01-01 | – | no data |
| India | 1991-01-18 | – | no data |
| Korea | 1997-12-04 | – | no data |
| Mexico | 1982-01-01 | – | no data |
| Mexico | 1995-02-01 | – | no data |
| Mexico | 1999-07-07 | – | no data |
| Poland | 1981-01-01 | – | no data |
| Portugal | 2011-05-17 | 3 | ● reached |
| Russia | 1960-01-01 | – | no data |
| Russia | 2022-06-27 | 2 | ○ missed |
| Thailand | 1997-08-20 | – | no data |
| Türkiye | 1994-07-08 | – | no data |
| Türkiye | 1999-01-01 | – | no data |
| South Africa | 1993-01-01 | – | no data |
- Locational banking statistics (LBS) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q1 2005 to Q2 2026, quarterly · read 30 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- Consolidated banking statistics (CBS) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q1 2005 to Q2 2026, quarterly · read 30 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- Debt securities statistics (DSS) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q1 2005 to Q2 2026, quarterly · read 27 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity (IRFCL) · IMF, open, with attribution · Q1 2005 to Q2 2026, quarterly · read 29 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- International Investment Position (IIP) · IMF, open, with attribution · Q1 2005 to Q2 2026, quarterly · read 27 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- Balance of Payments (BOP) · IMF, open, with attribution · Q1 2005 to Q2 2026, quarterly · read 27 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method
- Credit to the non-financial sector (GDP for every ratio) · BIS, open, with attribution · Q1 2005 to Q2 2026, quarterly · via money-flow method
- FRED, Federal Reserve H.4.1 and H.10 series · Federal Reserve Board, via FRED (St. Louis Fed), public domain, citation requested ·
DTWEXBGS· read 31 Oct 2026 · via money-flow method - UN Comtrade, goods trade by reporter and partner · UN Statistics Division, derived records only (shares × world total) · 12-month window, Aug 2025–Jul 2026 · read 2 Nov 2026 · via trade-flow method
Board quarters to Q2 2026; trade windows to Jul 2026. Calculations: datasteg global-network (scripts/stress.py).